Sunday, December 16, 2018

2010 Divorce Rates and Longer Term Trends


December 8, 2017  

On 8th December, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) launched the latest figures on divorces taking place in 2010. Having just recently discussed the patterns over recent years, and exactly what this tells us about the health of marital relationship as an institution, it deserves considering how these newest statistics affect the larger image.

The heading is that the variety of divorces in 2010 rose; the first yearly rise in eight years (since 2003) and apparently out of action with the broader trend. The overall number of divorces that happened in 2010 pertained to 119,589 representing a 4.9% boost on 2009’s 113,949 divorces. Although, on the surface area, this does appear to suggest a rise in the frequency of divorce the figure could possibly be described by other aspects such as a larger married population – more tellingly the divorce rate, that is the percentage of the married population that got divorced, likewise rose from 10.5% in 2009 to 11.1% in 2010. So does this reinforce the understanding that more marriages are failing?

Instead of a sign of a more comprehensive shift in societal mindsets it is most likely that the outcomes for 2010 mark a glitch in a longer term decline in divorce rates. This sort of problem or spike in divorce rates has actually been seen at other points in current history when the country has actually been on the tail end of an economic crisis. In 1993 the rate increased following the economic downturn between 1990 and 1992. There appears to have been a lag in between the worst of the financial troubles and a jump in divorces and it appears possible that this might likewise mean causality; monetary problems are one of the significant causes of relationship breakdowns and the lag might be described by a) a preliminary response to gather’ to handle loan concerns, b) the develop of subsequent pressures in the relationship and then, c) as soon as the relationship has actually broken down, the time it takes for divorce procedure itself to complete.

In terms of the more comprehensive photo, the real number of divorces has been significantly succumbing to the last decade although it is simple to associate this to the matching fall in marriages and previous divorce trends deteriorating the size of the married population in the first place. That the divorce rate has actually been gradually falling too suggests that those who are married are less most likely to divide.

Further evidence originates from the profile of those couples involved. More divorces involved individuals aged 40-44 than any other age in 2010 but surprisingly it seems that the age at which people divorce is creeping up (both males and females had 0.2 increases to 44.2 and 41.7 respectively), albeit in line with the rise in the age at which people are weding, whilst the duration of marital relationships has actually plateaued. Additionally, the greatest rate of divorces for guys in 2010 was seen in the 30-34 years of age age rather than the 25-29 group in 2009 (ladies were unchanged). This might all recommend that marital relationships are beginning later on but are beginning to last a bit longer.

Despite the most recent figures informing us that 33% of marital relationships starting in 1995 had actually failed in the 15 year period to 2010 (up from 22% of those in the very same 15 year duration from 1970) the ONS is recommending that the figures they have actually acquired up until now may indicate that the rate of divorce before the 15th year for more current marriages might be likely to decrease. Again this adds a little bit more weight to the argument that couples now appear to be waiting longer (cohabiting), being more cautious however ultimately, as a result, being more successful in their marriages.

In summary, it would appear more than likely that the rise in divorces in 2010 is a spike, as seen in previous periods of economic downturn, rather than a longer term trend. There is still evidence in the age and duration of those getting divorced to support the larger picture that couples are being more effective in marital relationship, however just time will inform.

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